Good, if someway belated, wishes for 2010. For those who missed them, this letter runs over some of the highlights of 2009 and, most importantly, provides dates for your diary in 2010. We have had to change the dates of the first two meetings so please make sure those you have are correct: they are not the dates in the Newsletter! Please see below. The lateness of this letter has to do with the drawn out arrangements for the Public Policy Forum meeting on 25 March; we are still trying to arrange for a participant from the government.
In 2009 we heard presentations on recruitment and selection by Nicola Monson and John McGurk of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, on 23 March, and by Ewart Keep on 13 October. These showed how much still needs to be explored about the effectiveness of practice and the effects of related public policy in this most complex subject area.
We looked at the different approaches taken in different sectors, occupations and labour force segments. Public policy and economists tend to focus on qualification issues relating to recruitment whereas employers, once they had decided whether or not qualifications should be used as a filter tend to be more concerned with experience and skills, more recently including soft and management skills. The churn of public policy and changes in qualifications had confused rather than simplifying this scene. While colleagues hoped that they would have a beneficial influence, there was as yet no reason to believe that the new diplomas together with effectively the raising of the school leaving age would help to lead to ‘better jobs’ and less social deprivation in the absence of industrial change and an increase in the demand for higher skills. It was argued that Government needed to find a way to bring settlement to the qualification system. In relation to youth unemployment, John argued that there needed to be more cooperation between recruiters and policy makers to improve the outcomes from education and training.
On 27 April we heard Richard Pring talk about the conclusions of the Nuffield Review of 14-19 Education and Training. The Review had focussed on ‘what constitutes an educated 19 year old in this day and age?’. The conclusions can be found on the Nuffield web site. Richard talked about excellent examples of preparation for work, but also problems because too many are taking degree courses and then finding themselves in jobs for which degrees are not appropriate, and a deficit in employer demand for and involvement in the development of craft and technician level skills (and by implication, the types of work for which these skills are relevant). Central government involvement in and domination of policy had drawn the initiative and responsibility for skills supply away from local areas, and turning the clock back would not be easy.
Then on 10 November we turned towards the demand side of the equation. Ken Mayhew, Caroline Lloyd and Susan James brought together what had been learned in the low pay sector studies carried out in Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK and USA in the Russell Sage Foundation project. (The project book is now available from Russell Sage.) The project had explored the reasons for the increasing incidence of low pay and concluded that the key factor appears to be what is described as ‘the inclusiveness of a country’s labour market institutions’. Increasing labour supply, immigration and social security systems (except in Denmark) have little effect. What does seem to keep low pay at bay includes higher union density, bargaining coverage, minimum wage, product market regulation, employment protection legislation and supervisory boards involving worker members. The breaking down of these institutional arrangements in the name of competition and globalisation had fuelled individualism and widened earnings distributions. The nature of low paid work and the availability of qualified labour did not explain differences between countries and there was no evidence that ‘moving up market within low pay sectors is a viable solution.
Taken together, the conclusions from these four meetings appear more than somewhat depressing and describe a real demand-side dilemma. Surely no government is going to bring back the old labour market institutions? Will any government make sure the minimum wage keeps pace with, yet alone outstrips changes in average earnings in a future in which international competition for high value jobs seems likely to be intense? How can demand for higher skills be increased, particularly in the geographical areas of low demand, low pay, low aspiration and low achievement pointed to by Richard Pring? These issues will underlie many of our debates in 2010.
2010 meetings
This year we start with two meetings in the same month
In Oxford on 23 March, at the first Employers’ Forum meeting, Geoff Hayward will talk about the transition between schooling (broadly conceived) and working life looking at changes since the raising of the School Leaving Age in 1972 in England and the various initiatives introduced to support young people to progress both within the education and training system and into employment. He will then look forward to the proposals to increase the participation age in Education and Training to 17 and then 18 by 2015, commenting on the role of employers, comparisons with other countries and contribution to the ‘Every Child Matters’ agenda.
Then in London on 25 March the Public Policy Forum will have a special meeting when Ewart Keep will talk to his Research Paper 86 in which he asks why it is not possible to adjust the underlying policy narrative which sees skills as a supply rather than a demand-led problem. Ewart’s arguments will be responded to by Ben Coates a special adviser to the Conservative Party and Sam Cannicott a political adviser to the Liberal Democrats. As indicated above, we are still trying to get a representative from the Government. The meeting will be held in the Westminster room, Church House Conference Centre, Deans Yard, Westminster, SW1P 3NZ from 4.00 to 7.00 and will be followed by a buffet meal.
For those who are interested in what is now a developing debate about skills demand and economic growth, it is worth having a look at the SKOPE web site to see Issues Paper 21 by Ewart Keep and Ken Mayhew in which they comment on the Skills for Growth White Paper 2009 and the growing influence of the UKCES.
The other meeting dates in 2010 are Employers’ Forum 12 October and Public Policy Forum 9 November - details to follow in due course.
Finally, thanks to all those who responded to the note about membership and particular thanks to those who suggested the names of prospective members. All suggestions are welcome - of members and subjects for discussion, so please don’t hold back.
